Pre-election opinion survey shared as 'exit poll' giving NDA most Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh

By: Umme Kulsum
June 1 2024

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Pre-election opinion survey shared as 'exit poll' giving NDA most Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh

Image of a post claiming to show exit poll results by ABP News predicting BJP's alliance group winning most seats in Andhra Pradesh in the Lok Sabha polls.


The Verdict Misleading

The viral post shows a pre-poll opinion survey published by ABP News on April 16, before the commencement of the 2024 Indian Lok Sabha elections.

Claim ID 0bf203ac

What is the claim?

As the 2024 Indian general elections draw to a close with the conclusion of the last phase of voting on June 1evening, several social media users have shared a screenshot of a news report by Indian news channel ABP News, claiming that it shows the results of an 'exit poll' carried out in the South Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. The users claimed that the 'exit poll' had shown that the three-party alliance of the Jana Sena Party (JSP), the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is set to win the most number of Lok Sabha seats in the state.

"BREAKING NEWS ABP C Voter #ExitPoll in Andhra Pradesh predicts: JSP-TDP-BJP Alliance: 20 YCP: 5," several users wrote in posts shared on X (formerly Twitter) on June 1 late afternoon. The posts carried a screenshot of a news report which mentioned the same seat share.

The users added hashtags indicating that this purported exit poll had indicated that the ruling party in Andhra Pradesh, the Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party (YSRCP), would lose the elections. Similar posts were also shared on Facebook. Archived versions of such posts can be seen here, here, here, here, and here.

Screenshot of claims made online. (Source: X/Facebook/Modified by Logically Facts)

While the ABP-CVoter exit poll, released on June 1 evening (after 6:30 PM), does give the BJP-TDP-JSP alliance 21-25 Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh and predicts 0-4 seats for the YSRCP, we found that the screenshot in question is from an ABP News report about a pre-election opinion survey published in April before the general elections kicked off.

What did we find?

The posts by social media users were shared on June 1 late afternoon, before the results of the ABP-CVoter exit polls were actually published. The Election Commission of India (ECI) (archived here) had issued guidelines stating that exit polls must only be released after 6:30 PM on June 1, 2024, following the completion of polling across all seven phases.

Our research showed that the screenshot predicting a substantial victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), is sourced from an article published on  April 16, 2024, by ABP News on its website. The report is about an opinion survey conducted before the start of the 2024 Indian general election on April 19.

The article discussed the findings of the ABP-CVoter opinion poll, carried out between March 11 and April 12, 2024, and covering 543 Lok Sabha constituencies, which projected a 46 percent nationwide vote share for the BJP-led NDA in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. It also mentioned projections for NDA vote shares in key states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and southern states including Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, and Kerala.  

The article elaborated on the findings of the ABP-CVoter survey regarding the BJP's prospects in Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh for the general election. The opinion survey suggested that the NDA is projected to achieve a notable victory in Andhra Pradesh, which has 25 Lok Sabha seats, capturing 20 of them, with only five seats projected to be won by the YSRCP (mentioned as YCP in some viral posts). This is the data mentioned in the social media posts, with the incorrect claim that it shows 'exit poll' findings for Andhra Pradesh. 

The original article confirms that a screenshot of a report on the ABP-CVoter opinion survey done before the general elections, suggesting a significant win for the NDA in Andhra Pradesh in the 2024 Lok Sabha, is being shared as 'exit poll' findings for Lok Sabha seats in  Andhra Pradesh.

About exit polls

While opinion polls are surveys of voters carried out before actual polling on their intended choices, exit polls are post-election surveys carried out right after the voter steps out of the polling booth. In accordance with the guidelines published by the ECI, exit poll results began being released on June 1 evening after 6:30 PM, after the voting booths closed at the end of the seventh phase of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

It may be noted that exit poll results, often viewed as indicators of election results, are not the same as the actual results and can be inaccurate. The actual results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections will be declared on June 4.

Logically Facts has previously debunked similar misattributed survey results that were falsely shared as exit polls. These fact checks can be read here, here, here, here, and here.

The verdict

A screenshot from a news report from April 16, 2024, about the results of an ABP-CVoter opinion survey carried ahead of the commencement of the general polls, is being shared as findings of an 'exit poll' for the Lok Sabha seats in Andhra Pradesh, showing the BJP-TDP-JSP trio winning most of them. As the exit poll by ABP-CVoter has actually indicated similar results, we have marked the claim as misleading.

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